Palo Alto, CA – Tony Perkins has probably earned the right to crow. He famously predicted the “dot-bomb” right before it went off, for instance, and through the darkest aftermath, companies he and his AlwaysOn advisors picked as leading potential entrepreneurial investments have managed to stay ahead of the curve for profitable exits. In venture capital or VC-speak, an “exit” is that point at which early investors see a return on their investment, either through the company going public – as likely this year as a woman in the White House – or in today’s more common “merger.”
Being a member of past AO 100 companies gave you about a third of a chance to exit at three times the industry average, Perkins claims. A study from the 451 Group found that, among the previous AO 100 companies 23 companies have been acquired in just the last 12 months for a total of $5.5 billion. Microsoft
Deals are clearly down from a 2005-2006 high of 27, and – depending on who you ask – all were bought out by another company rather than through public offering. Microsoft is the largest “serial acquirer” of AO firms, having now bought six of them.
That said, the yearly listing is somewhat misleading – companies that have appeared on past lists may recur – among this year’s top 250 are many repeats such as Aggregate Knowledge, Digg, Facebook, Gaia – last year’s winner – Topix, Tremor, Trulia, Yelp and Zillow, being among those already familiar to newspaper companies in one way or another.
There’s a long list of “green tech” start-ups, which, while probably worth watching, don’t have a lot to do with publishing; and infrastructure plays – other than making the point repeatedly that selling software as a service is here to stay – don’t generally become competitive game-changers.
Four categories do: Mobile, Consumer & Community, Online Advertising Service Providers and Enablers, and we’ll cherry-pick each of these a bit to raise a flag or mark trend lines.
But we don’t want to miss the forest for the trees. A few key trends are worth highlighting without being tied to any single company.
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